Global Warming

Forum for discussion of issues of scope larger than New Hampshire

Is global warming occurring and/or accelerating because of humans?

Yes
8
36%
No
13
59%
Not sure
1
5%
 
Total votes : 22

Re: Global Warming

Postby safety frog » Thu Feb 03, 2011 3:44 pm

Some of those little snow people look pretty mean. They would keep my Lab Teddy pretty busy! :lol:
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Re: Global Warming

Postby C L » Thu Feb 03, 2011 5:23 pm

ebakenoza wrote:Apparently it's o.k. for a liberal to make a remark about a conservative,but return the favor and they get uppity Curt ,please remove my membership from this website. thank you,you know who I am. sheesh,hhat a crybaby.


I havent even been in on this thread, I happened to be looking at it and saw that reference. Please give me an instance where I made a remark about you personally about a subject that you didn't even have an opinion on?

I have no idea who you are and vice versa, what gives you the right to ASSume that I would even think that.

Go be an internet bully somewhere else



curt wrote:It's just that we've been here 5 years and we've mostly avoided exchanges like this.


I say keep the posts up and let everyone see them.
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Re: Global Warming

Postby Rob C » Fri Mar 09, 2012 1:46 pm

Since we haven't updated in a while. Things are still heading in the wrong direction...

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Re: Global Warming

Postby safety frog » Tue Mar 27, 2012 9:22 am

Is this finally proof we're NOT causing global warming? The whole of the Earth heated up in medieval times without human CO2 emissions, says new study
• Evidence was found in a rare mineral that records global temperatures
• Warming was global and NOT limited to Europe
• Throws doubt on orthodoxies around 'global warming'
By Ted Thornhill
PUBLISHED: 07:21 EST, 26 March 2012 | UPDATED: 07:55 EST, 26 March 2012

Current theories of the causes and impact of global warming have been thrown into question by a new study which shows that during medieval times the whole of the planet heated up.
It then cooled down naturally and there was even a 'mini ice age'.
A team of scientists led by geochemist Zunli Lu from Syracuse University in New York state, has found that contrary to the ‘consensus’, the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ approximately 500 to 1,000 years ago wasn’t just confined to Europe.
In fact, it extended all the way down to Antarctica – which means that the Earth has already experience
At present the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) argues that the Medieval Warm Period was confined to Europe – therefore that the warming we’re experiencing now is a man-made phenomenon.
However, Professor Lu has shown that this isn’t true – and the evidence lies with a rare mineral called ikaite, which forms in cold waters.
‘Ikaite is an icy version of limestone,’ said Lu. ‘The crystals are only stable under cold conditions and actually melt at room temperature.’
It turns out the water that holds the crystal structure together - called the hydration water - traps information about temperatures present when the crystals formed. …………”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... z1qK6QeVd1
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Re: Global Warming

Postby Rob C » Tue Mar 27, 2012 10:30 am

safety frog wrote:Is this finally proof we're NOT causing global warming?

Nope.

NASA wrote:If Earth has warmed and cooled throughout history, what makes scientists think that humans are causing global warming now?
By Rebecca Lindsey
May 4, 2010

The first piece of evidence that the warming over the past few decades isn’t part of a natural cycle is how fast the change is happening. The biggest temperature swings our planet has experienced in the past million years are the ice ages. Based on a combination of paleoclimate data and models, scientists estimate that when ice ages have ended in the past, it has taken about 5,000 years for the planet to warm between 4 and 7 degrees Celsius. The warming of the past century—0.7 degrees Celsius—is roughly eight times faster than the ice-age-recovery warming on average.

The second reason that scientists think the current warming is not from natural influences is that, over the past century, scientists from all over the world have been collecting data on natural factors that influence climate—things like changes in the Sun’s brightness, major volcanic eruptions, and cycles such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These observations have failed to show any long-term changes that could fully account for the recent, rapid warming of Earth’s temperature.

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Reconstructions of global temperature that include greenhouse gas increases and other human influences (red line, based on many models) closely match measured temperatures (dashed line). Those that only include natural influences (blue line, based on many models) show a slight cooling, which has not occurred. The ability of models to generate reasonable histories of global temperature is verified by their response to four 20th-century volcanic eruptions: each eruption caused brief cooling that appeared in observed as well as modeled records. (Graph adapted from Hegerl and Zwiers et al., 2007.)

Finally, scientists know that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and that it is released into the air when coal and other fossil fuels burn. Paleoclimate data show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are higher than they have been in the past 800,000 years. There is no plausible explanation for why such high levels of carbon dioxide would not cause the planet to warm.

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Air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice preserve an 800,000-year record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, which naturally varied from about 180 to about 280 parts per million. Once humans began burning large quantities of coal and oil in the 19th century, concentrations rose to 315 parts per million by 1958 (when direct measurements of carbon dioxide in the Antarctic atmosphere began) to 380 parts per million in 2007. (NASA graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from Keeling et al., 2008.)
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Re: Global Warming

Postby Rob C » Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:05 am

Physics Today wrote:Scientists alarmed by rapidly shrinking Arctic ice cap


In September 2012 Arctic sea-ice extent fell to its lowest level since the first satellite records in 1979. At 3.4 million km2, the area was roughly half the median minimum coverage that occurred from 1979 to 2000. A 2011 MIT model showed the sea ice is thinning at four times the rate the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated in 2007. The Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System model developed at the University of Washington’s Applied Physics Laboratory showed last year’s minimum volume at 3263 km3, roughly half the volume it had in 2007, the year of the previous record low. Some climate scientists are now warning that an ice-free summer Arctic Ocean could appear within a few years—more than a decade sooner than existing climate models have predicted.

With less ice and more open water, the top of the world absorbs more heat and reflects less. At the maximum angle of incidence, a calm ocean soaks up about 93% of the sunlight striking it—an albedo comparable to that of an asphalt parking lot. Snow-covered ice, by contrast, reflects more than 90% of solar energy. “The Arctic acts as a thermostat for the world. It’s a heat sink,” said Martin Jeffries, program officer and Arctic adviser at the Office of Naval Research, speaking at the American Geophysical Union’s fall meeting on 5 December. “And by changing that reflectivity, we are changing the thermostat and the Arctic’s contribution to the total Earth climate system.” Even if warming could be limited to 2 °C globally—the generally accepted threshold for avoiding the more catastrophic impacts of climate change—the Arctic will warm by three to four times that amount, said Julienne Stroeve, senior scientist with the National Snow and Ice Data Center, at a 10 December roundtable discussion in Washington, DC.


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Re: Global Warming

Postby shawn_oneil » Mon Dec 02, 2013 11:10 am

Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... -saturday/

That is a lot of ice in a alleged "Global Warming" issue.
Rob you care to refute?
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Re: Global Warming

Postby Rob C » Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:32 pm

Skeptical Science wrote:Is Antarctica losing or gaining ice?
"[Ice] is expanding in much of Antarctica, contrary to the widespread public belief that global warming is melting the continental ice cap." (Greg Roberts, The Australian)
Skeptic arguments that Antarctica is gaining ice frequently hinge on an error of omission, namely ignoring the difference between land ice and sea ice.

In glaciology and particularly with respect to Antarctic ice, not all things are created equal. Let us consider the following differences. Antarctic land ice is the ice which has accumulated over thousands of years on the Antarctica landmass itself through snowfall. This land ice therefore is actually stored ocean water that once fell as precipitation. Sea ice in Antarctica is quite different as it is ice which forms in salt water primarily during the winter months. When land ice melts and flows into the oceans global sea levels rise on average; when sea ice melts sea levels do not change measurably.

In Antarctica, sea ice grows quite extensively during winter but nearly completely melts away during the summer (Figure 1). That is where the important difference between Antarctic and Arctic sea ice exists as much of the Arctic's sea ice lasts all the year round. During the winter months it increases and before decreasing during the summer months, but an ice cover does in fact remain in the North which includes quite a bit of ice from previous years (Figure 1). Essentially Arctic sea ice is more important for the earth's energy balance because when it increasingly melts, more sunlight is absorbed by the oceans whereas Antarctic sea ice normally melts each summer leaving the earth's energy balance largely unchanged.

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Figure 1: Coverage of sea ice in both the Arctic (Top) and Antarctica (Bottom) for both summer minimums and winter maximums
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center


One must also be careful how you interpret trends in Antarctic sea ice. Currently this ice is increasing overall and has been for years but is this the smoking gun against climate change? Not quite. Antarctic sea ice is gaining because of many different reasons but the most accepted recent explanations are listed below:

i) Ozone levels over Antarctica have dropped causing stratospheric cooling and increasing winds which lead to more areas of open water that can be frozen (Gillet 2003, Thompson 2002, Turner 2009).

and

ii) The Southern Ocean is freshening because of increased rain and snowfall as well as an increase in meltwater coming from the edges of Antarctica's land ice (Zhang 2007, Bintanga et al. 2013). Together, these change the composition of the different layers in the ocean there causing less mixing between warm and cold layers and thus less melted sea and coastal land ice.

All the sea ice talk aside, it is quite clear that really when it comes to Antarctic ice and sea levels, sea ice is not the most important thing to measure. In Antarctica, the largest and most important ice mass is the land ice of the West Antarctic and East Antarctic ice sheets.

Therefore, how is Antarctic land ice doing?

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Figure 2: Estimates of total Antarctic land ice changes and approximate sea level contributions using a combination of different measurement techniques (Shepherd, 2012). Shaded areas represent the estimate uncertainty (1-sigma).

Estimates of recent changes in Antarctic land ice (Figure 2, bottom panel) show an increasing contribution to sea level with time, although not as fast a rate or acceleration as Greenland. Between 1992 and 2011, the Antarctic Ice Sheets overall lost 1350 giga-tonnes (Gt) or 1,350,000,000,000 tonnes into the oceans, at an average rate of 70 Gt per year (Gt/yr). Because a reduction in mass of 360 Gt/year represents an annual global-average sea level rise of 1 mm, these estimates equate to an increase in global-average sea levels by 0.19 mm/yr.

There is variation between regions within Antarctica (Figure 2, top panel), with the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet losing ice mass, and with an increasing rate. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is growing slightly over this period but not enough to offset the other losses. There are of course uncertainties in the estimation methods but independent data from multiple measurement techniques (explained here) all show the same thing, Antarctica is losing land ice as a whole, and these losses are accelerating quickly.
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Re: Global Warming

Postby shawn_oneil » Thu Dec 05, 2013 2:29 pm

So if it was melting, that support Global warming. If it is expand it also support Global warming.
Al Gore would be proud of you. You have learned (I mean swallowed the Kool-Aid) well Grasshopper.
:)
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Re: Global Warming

Postby Rob C » Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:11 pm

shawn_oneil wrote:So if it was melting, that support Global warming. If it is expand it also support Global warming.
Al Gore would be proud of you. You have learned (I mean swallowed the Kool-Aid) well Grasshopper.
:)
Shawn

I'm not swallowing anything, I'm simply passing along information :D

It's not simple or black and white. Our climate is a very complex system where global warming doesn't mean there is always warming everywhere all the time. It's like trying to grab a balloon filled with sand, you squeeze one area and it squirts out between your fingers somewhere else.

If the mass of land ice were increasing then I'd buy what you're saying...but it's not. It's melting, more and more rapidly as time goes by. This influx of fresh water into the ocean changes currents and salinity and increases the freezing temperature thus...more ice on the ocean, less ice on the land.

You don't see this in the Arctic BECAUSE there's no land ice.

No Kool-Aid just water and ice!

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Re: Global Warming

Postby shawn_oneil » Tue Jan 07, 2014 7:04 pm

Has anyone seen Al Gore lately? I suspect "Polar Vortex" its not part of his elite vocabulary.
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Re: Global Warming

Postby Rob C » Fri Jan 10, 2014 3:47 pm

But yet the data shows us the warming continues....

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